Investing In Trump's Uncertainty
President Trump's economic transition is volatile, here's how to invest.
Summary
Uncertainty over tariffs, the debt ceiling, budget negotiations and the Federal Reserve are driving market volatility.
My base case for the stock market is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 test the 2022 lows.
I expect a much looser Federal Reserve in 2026 which will offset a potential recession and bear market between now and then.
I believe that Bitcoin is going to come out of this correction with a lot of upside as it adopts the role as currency hedge that I have talked about.
SMID caps tend to lead in a new bull market and changes to shorting combined with QE could drive big up years after a bottom is in.
I opened the year with my annual forecast that has been spot on so far:
Overvaluation And Uncertainty Is A Path To Correction In 2025
I followed up that piece with...
I wish I had been wrong about all those bearish things I said.
In the past several weeks, the term "uncertainty" that I used in my annual forecast title has become the go to word. You are hearing it in the media, from analysts, on earnings calls from C-level execs and the Fed Chairman who said it 11 times in his last Federal Reserve meeting press conference.
I think this much is certain, the "transition" that the Trump administration has put us into, at least in the short-term, is going to be uneven at best and painful at worst.
Today, I am covering the three scenarios we could see the market take for the balance of the year and how we can deal with this uncertainty. I'll cover some broader economic ideas to set the stage.
Fighting The Fed Meets Uncertainty
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