2025 Investing Outlook Webinar By Kirk Spano

My 2025 economic, stock market, currency and Bitcoin outlook with charts and reasoning.

For 2024, I correctly forecast a 20% up year for the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) to $100,000. My conviction on these ideas were very high confidence.

Stock Market Euphoria To $100,000 Bitcoin, What I Got Right And Wrong In 2024

In 2024, riding your winners was the play. 2025 will not be that straightforward. Government, central banks, currencies, geopolitics and earnings are all too uncertain for a high conviction stock market call in the coming year.

In this environment, prediction gives way to reaction.

Those who glom onto trader narratives, or stubborn belief structures, will find it harder to profit. Those who react well to whatever happens will fare better.

I see risks in 2025 high and rising. But, there is also a chance that everything falls into place. Investors need to understand the potential scenarios and have a game plan for whichever ones play out. We could see two or three different market shifts by 2026.

It is important to understand the backdrop going into 2025 and the potential scenarios that can play out. Here's what I am working through as I manage money at my firm and provide investment ideas for members of my investment groups.

The S&P 500 Is Dangerously Overvalued

With around half of people indexing now to S&P 500 ETFs (SPY) (VOO) and various mutual funds, as well as, about 80% of total stock market capitalization in the S&P 500, considering the valuation of this relatively efficient and correlated market is very important to think through.

I would encourage every investor to read Apollo Global Management's (APO), itself now an S&P 500 constituent, to read their analysis on the impact of indexing on market structure.

The Impact of Passive Investing - Apollo Academy

Right now, most measures of aggregate S&P 500 valuation are as high as they have ever been and some are at their highest points in history.